San Antonio home prices are falling in 2025. The median listing price dropped to $287,500 (down 2.5% year over year), and Zillow projects another 4% decline over the next 12 months as inventory keeps climbing. The correction isn’t hitting every neighborhood equally, though, so where you buy matters more than when right now.
San Antonio Price Drops by Market Metric
- Sale price decline: Median sale prices fell 3.3% year over year to $260,000 in March 2026, continuing a downward trend that started mid-2025.
- Listing price decline: Median listing prices dropped 2.5% to $287,500 in December, and Zillow projects another 4% decline over the following 12 months.
- Sales volume drop: Home sales fell 18% in October as sellers locked into low mortgage rates refused to cut prices, pulling listings instead of accepting lower offers.
- Bottom line: Three separate metrics (sale price, listing price, sales volume) are all trending negative, which typically signals six to twelve more months of buyer-friendly conditions before the market finds a floor.
Price Drop Impact by Down Payment Tier
- 5% down: On a $260K median-priced home, the 3.5% price decline means roughly $450 less in down payment and $56 per month less on the mortgage versus last year’s pricing.
- 10% down: Buyers save about $900 upfront on down payment and carry $8,100 less in principal, dropping monthly payments by approximately $53 at current 6.8% rates.
- 20% down: The largest upfront benefit at $1,800 less in down payment, with $7,200 less in loan principal saving around $47 per month over 30 years.
- Break-even on waiting: If Zillow’s projected 4% further decline holds, waiting could save an additional $10,400, but each quarter-point rate increase adds roughly $38 per month and can erase those gains.
Tax Exemptions and Appraisal Protests
- Homestead savings: Texas homestead exemption removes $100,000 from school district taxable value, saving most San Antonio homeowners roughly $1,500 to $1,800 per year.
- Veteran exemption: Disabled Veterans rated 100% by the VA pay zero property tax in Texas, and surviving spouses retain that exemption if they remain in the home.
- Protest deadline: Bexar County’s appraisal protest deadline falls around May 15 each year; with prices declining, recent comparable sales strengthen your case for a lower assessed value.
- Net effect: At the current $260K median, the $100,000 homestead exemption cuts effective taxable value to $160K, reducing the combined property tax bill by roughly $2,200 per year.
Real-World San Antonio Price Drop Examples
- Purchase example: A buyer closing at today’s $260K median pays roughly $9,000 less than the same home cost in March 2025, when the median sat near $269K.
- Refinance impact: A homeowner who purchased at $285K in 2023 now holds a home worth closer to $260K, reducing available equity and potentially requiring PMI on a conventional refi.
- Seller reality: Homes now sit 98 days on average before selling, so a seller listing at 2024 comps risks chasing the market down and netting less after months of carrying costs.
- Worth noting: With 4.5% of area homes already valued below their last sale price, buyers hold real negotiating leverage, but should confirm appraisal support before locking any contract.
What is the housing forecast for San Antonio in 2025?
San Antonio’s housing market favors buyers in 2025. Median home prices have dropped roughly 3.7%, with Zillow forecasting up to a 4% decline over the next 12 months. Rising inventory and longer days on market are giving buyers more negotiating power heading into late 2025.
Will housing prices ever go down in 2025?
They already have. San Antonio’s median home price dropped 3.7% in 2025, and Zillow forecasts roughly a 4% decline over the next 12 months. Rising inventory and slower sales volume are driving the correction, putting buyers in a stronger negotiating position than they’ve had in years.
What are San Antonio home price drops in 2025?
San Antonio’s median home prices fell roughly 3.7% in 2025, with Zillow forecasting up to a 4% decline over 12 months. Rising inventory and higher mortgage rates are driving the shift. By March 2026, the median sale price sat around $260,000, down 3.3% year over year.
The Bottom Line Up Front
San Antonio home prices fell between 3% and 4% through 2025, pushing the metro firmly into buyer-friendly territory. But the drops are not evenly distributed. Neighborhoods with new construction and high inventory saw steeper declines, while established pockets held closer to flat. The real question for buyers and sellers is whether this correction has room to run or is already priced in.
The median sale price hit $260,000 by March 2026, a 3.3% year-over-year decline according to Redfin. Zillow projected a 4% drop over 12 months starting mid-2025. Sales volume tells a sharper story: October 2025 transactions fell 18%, the steepest drop among major Texas metros. Many sellers locked into sub-4% rates pulled their listings rather than negotiate lower. That rate-lock effect keeps inventory artificially tight in ZIP codes like 78209 and 78258, even as citywide listings climb. Rates near 7% remain the primary drag on buyer demand.
- Median home prices in San Antonio fell 3.3% year over year to $260,000 by March 2026.
- October 2025 home sales dropped 18%, the steepest decline of any major Texas metro.
- Zillow forecasted a 4% price decline over 12 months, driven by rising inventory and weak demand.
- Sellers with sub-4% locked-in mortgage rates pulled listings rather than accept lower offers.
- Mortgage rates hovering near 7% continue to suppress both buyer activity and overall transaction volume.
What Local Market Reports Leave Out
Most San Antonio market reports give you a median price and call it a day. That single number hides neighborhood-level swings, seller concession trends, and inventory patterns that actually determine what buyers pay. The 3.3% year-over-year price decline Redfin reports for March 2026 looks very different when you break it apart by ZIP code, price band, and property type.
A citywide median of $260K blends $180K starter homes on the far West Side with $400K new builds near Stone Oak and Schertz. Reports rarely separate new construction from resale inventory, even though builders offering rate buydowns, closing cost credits, and upgrade packages pull median prices in directions that don’t reflect what a resale seller can realistically expect. Days on market varies dramatically by price band. Homes priced under $250K still move in roughly 50 days, while listings above $350K sit 100 days or longer.
| Metric | What Reports Show | What Gets Left Out |
|---|---|---|
| Median Sale Price | $260K citywide | Ranges from ~$210K on the West Side to $400K+ near Stone Oak |
| Price Change YoY | -3.3% overall decline | Some ZIPs down 6%+, others essentially flat |
| Days on Market | 98 days average | Under $250K moves in ~50 days; above $350K sits 100+ |
| Inventory Growth | Rising metro-wide | New construction inflates supply without reflecting resale conditions |
| Seller Concessions | Rarely tracked | Growing share of sales include buyer credits or rate buydowns |
If you’re pricing a home or writing an offer in San Antonio right now, the citywide median is background noise. Pull sold comps within a one-mile radius of your target property, filter by property type and square footage, and check concession history from the past 90 days. That gives you a negotiating position based on what’s actually happening on your street, not a number averaged across 500 square miles of metro.
Hidden Costs Buyers Overlook in a Down Market
Falling prices don’t automatically mean a cheaper deal. San Antonio buyers jumping on 2025’s 3-4% price drops often miss carrying costs, repair obligations, and fee structures that eat into perceived savings. A home listed $15,000 below last year’s comp can still cost more at closing when these line items stack up. Here’s what to budget beyond the sale price.
Bexar County’s property tax cycle creates a specific trap. The appraisal district sets values based on January 1 market conditions, so a home purchased mid-2025 at a reduced price may still carry a tax bill based on 2024’s higher valuation. You won’t see the adjustment until the following year’s notice. Meanwhile, insurance carriers in San Antonio have raised premiums 8-12% across much of the south and west sides, regardless of what the home sold for.
| Hidden Cost | Typical Range in San Antonio | Why It Gets Worse in a Down Market |
|---|---|---|
| Inspection repairs | $3,000–$12,000 | Sellers skip pre-listing inspections; deferred maintenance more common |
| Appraisal gap coverage | $0–$8,000 | Comps lag behind actual price drops, creating valuation mismatches |
| HOA special assessments | $500–$5,000/year | Fewer sales in the community strain association budgets |
| Property tax reassessment lag | Varies by year of purchase | Bexar County appraisals may not reflect 2025 drops until 2026 |
| Extended rate lock fees | 0.25%–0.50% of loan amount | Longer closing timelines in slow markets increase lock costs |
| Title cure costs | $500–$3,000 | Distressed sellers more likely to have lien or title clouds |
Run the numbers on a real scenario. A $260,000 home (San Antonio’s current median) with a 60-day close, one rate lock extension, $6,000 in inspection repairs, and a $2,500 HOA special assessment adds roughly $9,500 beyond the purchase price. That wipes out the entire 3.3% year-over-year price decline. The discount only works if you account for what sits underneath it.
Where Are San Antonio Home Prices Headed in 2025?
San Antonio home prices are headed lower through the rest of 2025. Zillow projects a 4% decline over the next 12 months, and Redfin already shows a 3.3% yea
Rising inventory is the main driver. Sellers who locked in sub-4% mortgage rates during 2020-2022 are finally listing, but many refuse to cut asking prices. That standoff pushed San Antonio home sales down 18% in October alone. Average days on market stretched to 98, giving buyers real negotiating leverage. New construction permits in Bexar County add to the supply side, and resale inventory keeps growing faster than buyer demand can absorb it.
verage. New construction permits in Bexar County add to the supply side, and resale inventory keeps growing faster than buyer demand can absorb it.
- Median listing price hit $287,500 in December 2024, already down 2.5% year over year
- Zillow forecasts an additional 4% decline through mid-2026
- Average days on market reached 98, up sharply from 2023 levels
- Sales volume fell 18% in October as buyer-seller price gaps stalled closings
- Inventory growth continues to outpace absorption across most San Antonio ZIP codes
A home listed at $280,000 today could trade closer to $268,000 by late 2025 if the 4% forecast holds. For sellers sitting on a 3% mortgage rate, the math on waiting gets worse each quarter as comparable sales pull pricing further down. Pricing right from day one is now the fastest path to a closed deal in San Antonio’s shifting market.
How Far Could Prices Fall Before Stabilizing?
Most forecasts point to a total peak-to-trough decline of 5-8% for San Antonio before the market finds a floor. With sale prices already down 3-4% from 2024 highs, that leaves roughly 1-4 percentage points of additional downside. Where the bottom actually lands depends on mortgage rates, local employment trends, and how quickly builders pull back on new construction starts.
The biggest variable is mortgage rates. If rates drop below 6.5% by late 2025, sidelined buyers re-enter the market and absorb current inventory within a few months, capping the total decline around 5%. If rates hold above 7% into 2026, the correction extends as homeowners who locked in sub-4% rates during 2021-2022 finally capitulate and list, adding supply to an already soft market. San Antonio’s 98-day average days on market confirms absorption is slow but not stalled.
| Scenario | Peak-to-Trough Decline | Implied Median Sale Price | What Triggers the Floor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mild correction | 4-5% | $256K-$258K | Rates dip below 6.5%, sidelined buyers absorb inventory |
| Moderate correction | 6-8% | $248K-$253K | Inventory growth plateaus, builders slow new starts |
| Deep correction | 10-12% | $237K-$242K | Local job losses compound sustained rate pressure |
The moderate scenario is the most probable outcome. San Antonio’s job market remains net positive, with healthcare, Military, and logistics employment anchoring baseline demand. But the metro added thousands of new housing units through 2024 and 2025, and that supply overhang needs time to clear. Buyers waiting for the absolute bottom rarely time it. A stronger approach: focus on ZIP codes where prices have already corrected 5% or more and negotiate aggressively from that reset point.
What Dropping Prices Mean for Your Buying Power
A 3-4% price drop on a $260,000 median-priced San Antonio home puts roughly $8,000 to $10,000 back in your pocket before you even start negotiating. That translates directly to a lower loan balance, smaller monthly payments, and less total interest paid over the life of your mortgage. Even with rates hovering near 7%, buyers today are financing meaningfully less principal than they would have a year ago.
The real savings multiply when you factor in current market dynamics. Sellers in San Antonio are offering concessions at rates the city hasn’t seen since 2019. Homes are sitting 98 days on average before going under contract. That timeline gives buyers serious negotiating room for inspection repairs, rate buydowns, or closing cost credits. Stack a $10,000 price cut with a seller-funded 2-1 buydown and a closing cost credit, and the total effective savings can top $20,000 compared to the same purchase a year earlier.
- A $10,000 price reduction at 7% interest saves about $67 per month, or roughly $24,000 over a 30-year loan
- Seller-paid rate buydowns (2-1 or 1-0) are easier to negotiate when homes sit 90+ days on market
- Lower purchase prices reduce your property tax base, saving hundreds annually in Bexar County’s 2.1% effective tax rate environment
- FHA and VA buyers benefit from lower appraisal targets, reducing the risk of appraisal gaps that killed deals in 2022 and 2023
- Conventional buyers targeting 5% or 10% down owe fewer dollars upfront on the same house
Run the numbers on a specific property, not just the market average. A home listed at $280,000 last spring might sell for $265,000 today. Finance that at 7% with a 2-1 rate buydown the seller covers, and your first-year payment drops by over $300 per month compared to buying that same house 12 months ago at full asking price.
Timing Mistakes That Cost Buyers Thousands
Waiting for the absolute bottom costs San Antonio buyers more than buying slightly early. The most expensive timing mistakes aren’t about market direction. They’re about rate locks expiring, hesitating through multiple offers, and letting inspection periods lapse while shopping for a better deal. Each delay carries a real dollar amount that offsets any price drop you’re hoping to catch.
San Antonio’s current 98-day average time on market gives buyers breathing room, but that patience backfires when it turns into indecision. A buyer who found the right house in February 2025 at $268,000 but waited two months for prices to drop further faced a rate increase from 6.5% to 6.9% during that window. The monthly payment went up $72, which adds $25,920 over the life of a 30-year loan, even if the sale price dropped $5,000.
| Timing Mistake | How It Happens | Typical Cost |
|---|---|---|
| Rate lock expiration | Buyer delays closing past the 30- or 45-day lock window | $3,000–$8,000 in higher rate or re-lock fees |
| Waiting for a lower price while rates climb | Mortgage rates rise 0.25–0.5% over 60 days of hesitation | $15,000–$26,000 over 30 years |
| Lowball offer on a fairly priced home | Seller takes a competing offer; buyer restarts search | $2,000–$5,000 in added carrying costs (rent, storage) |
| Skipping pre-approval before touring | Buyer finds a home, then loses 10–14 days getting approved | Lost deal or rushed loan at worse terms |
| Overextending the inspection period | Requesting multiple extensions or re-negotiations past deadline | Seller walks; buyer loses earnest money ($1,000–$5,000) |
The practical move in a declining market is setting a price ceiling you’re comfortable with and acting when a property hits it. Trying to time the exact bottom turns a potential savings into a math problem where rate movement, carrying costs, and lost negotiating leverage eat into every dollar you thought you’d save.
The Bottom Line
San Antonio home prices are down 3-4% from 2024 highs, with forecasts pointing to a total peak-to-trough decline of 5-8% before the market stabilizes. On a $260,000 median-priced home, that puts $8,000 to $10,000 back in your pocket before negotiations even start. But the headline number only tells part of the story. Carrying costs, repair obligations, and fee structures in a down market can eat into those savings fast if you’re not accounting for them upfront.
What matters most is looking past the median price. Neighborhood-level swings, seller concession trends, and inventory patterns vary widely across San Antonio’s submarkets. The buyers who come out ahead in 2025 won’t be the ones chasing the biggest discount. They’ll be the ones who understand what a price drop actually costs, and what it actually saves.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does Zillow forecast for San Antonio home prices?
Zillow projected a roughly 4% decline in San Antonio home values over the 12 months following early 2025. That forecast has tracked closely with actual results. By March 2026, Redfin reported median sale prices at $260,000, down 3.3% year over year. Zillow’s model factors in rising inventory levels, mortgage rate pressure, and slower absorption rates across the metro. Individual neighborhoods like Alamo Heights or Stone Oak may outperform or underperform that average depending on local supply and demand conditions.
What is the San Antonio housing market forecast for 2026?
Most analysts expect San Antonio prices to stay flat or decline slightly through 2026. The metro entered the year with median sale prices around $260,000, already down 3.3% from the prior year. Inventory continues to grow as new construction adds supply, particularly on the far north and far west sides. Mortgage rates near 7% keep monthly payments elevated, which limits buyer demand. Sellers who locked in sub-4% rates during 2020 and 2021 are increasingly listing as life circumstances force moves. Expect a buyer-friendly market with more negotiating room on price, closing costs, and repairs.
How do 2025 San Antonio home prices compare to 2022 and 2023 levels?
San Antonio’s median home price peaked near $310,000 in mid-2022 during the pandemic-era buying frenzy. By late 2023, prices had pulled back to roughly $295,000 as mortgage rates climbed above 7%. The 2025 median dropped further to approximately $275,000 to $280,000, representing a decline of about 10% from the 2022 peak. December 2025 listings sat at a median of $287,500, down 2.5% year over year. The trajectory shows a slow, steady correction rather than a crash, with most of the decline concentrated in suburban new-construction corridors.
What happened to San Antonio home sales in October 2025?
October 2025 saw an 18% drop in San Antonio home sales, the steepest decline of any major Texas metro that month. The primary driver was a pricing standoff: sellers who locked in low mortgage rates during 2020 and 2021 refused to lower asking prices, and many pulled listings entirely when offers came in below expectations. Buyers facing rates near 7% could not stretch to meet those prices. Active inventory climbed, but closed transactions fell. This pattern repeated across several Texas markets, though San Antonio’s decline was more pronounced than Dallas or Houston.
How do San Antonio’s price drops compare to Florida’s housing market?
Both markets are seeing corrections, but for different reasons. San Antonio’s 3.7% price decline in 2025 stems primarily from rising inventory and high mortgage rates in a market with steady new construction. Florida’s price drops, concentrated in metros like Tampa, Jacksonville, and Cape Coral, are driven by those same factors plus surging insurance costs (often $4,000 to $8,000 annually) and rising HOA fees. San Antonio does not face the insurance crisis hitting Florida’s coast. Property taxes are higher in Texas (no state income tax trade-off), but overall carrying costs remain lower than most declining Florida metros.
