As we approach the upcoming election, there’s a lot of buzz about how political shifts might affect the San Antonio housing market.
With the housing market already experiencing significant changes due to interest rate hikes, inflation, and supply chain disruptions, a new administration could bring about more adjustments.
This article explores the ways a change in leadership could impact housing prices, mortgage rates, supply and demand, and homeownership accessibility in San Antonio.
Current State of the San Antonio Housing Market
Before diving into the election's potential impacts, let's look at San Antonio’s housing market today:
Median Home Price: $345,000
Average Mortgage Rate: Currently hovering around 7.0%
Inventory Levels: Low, with limited supply contributing to high demand
Market Indicator Current Status (2024)
| Market Indicator | Current Status (2024) |
|---|---|
| Median Home Price | $345,000 |
| Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 7.0% |
| Inventory Levels | Limited supply |
San Antonio has seen significant growth in recent years, largely due to its relatively affordable housing, warm climate, and military presence. However, limited inventory, rising mortgage rates, and higher construction costs have pushed home prices upward.
Possible Changes in Mortgage Rates
Mortgage rates are a primary concern for buyers, sellers, and real estate professionals alike. These rates have a significant impact on affordability and could be influenced by the outcome of the election.
“The mortgage market is highly sensitive to political changes. Policies from the incoming administration can shape interest rates, which in turn influence home affordability,” says Brian Carter, Mortgage Strategist at HomeSource Lending.
Scenario 1: Lower Mortgage Rates
If the new administration focuses on economic stimulus or easing inflation through fiscal policies, we could see mortgage rates gradually decrease. Lower rates would make it easier for San Antonio homebuyers to afford larger loans, which could increase demand.
Scenario 2: Higher Mortgage Rates
Conversely, if inflation remains a significant concern, the Federal Reserve may keep rates elevated, or even raise them, to control spending. Higher mortgage rates would make homeownership more expensive, potentially cooling demand.
| Policy Focus | Potential Mortgage Impact |
|---|---|
| Inflation Control Policies | Higher mortgage rates |
| Economic Stimulus Policies | Lower mortgage rates |
Impact on Housing Prices
San Antonio’s median home price has increased in recent years, a trend that may continue depending on election outcomes.
Increased Demand: If policies favor economic growth, we may see more buyers entering the market, which could drive home prices higher.
Stable or Decreasing Prices: If new policies prioritize affordable housing development or increase housing supply, it could help stabilize or even lower home prices.
“Housing affordability is a priority for San Antonio residents. If the administration invests in housing programs, we might see relief in the high prices affecting our city,” says Laura Grant, Real Estate Analyst at Southern Housing Group.
Housing Supply and Construction Costs
Another factor that could be affected by election results is the supply of housing, especially in areas with ongoing construction like San Antonio.
Potential Changes in Housing Supply
If the new administration enacts policies that incentivize housing development, such as tax breaks for builders or subsidies for affordable housing, San Antonio could see an increase in housing supply. This increase could lead to more options for homebuyers and potentially stabilize prices.
Impact of Tariffs and Trade Policies
If trade restrictions or tariffs are introduced or increased, this could impact the cost of building materials like lumber and steel. Higher costs for materials could slow down construction, tightening the housing supply and driving prices higher.
| Policy Focus | Impact on Housing Supply |
|---|---|
| Affordable Housing Incentives | Increased supply, stabilized prices |
| Tariffs on Building Materials | Higher construction costs, limited supply |
Impact of Potential Trump Housing Policies on San Antonio
If former President Trump were to return to office, his administration might prioritize deregulation and tax incentives aimed at boosting the real estate and construction sectors.
Historically, Trump has supported policies designed to promote private investment in housing, especially through tax cuts and opportunity zones. These policies could have mixed effects on the San Antonio market:
Deregulation in Construction: A focus on reducing building regulations could lower construction costs, leading to more housing development. This could alleviate San Antonio’s housing shortage, making homes more accessible and stabilizing prices.
Opportunity Zones: Trump previously championed opportunity zones to attract investment into underdeveloped areas. If expanded, these zones could encourage more investors to fund affordable housing projects in parts of San Antonio that need revitalization.
“A Trump administration could drive private-sector growth in housing, creating more inventory,” says Mike Rowan, Real Estate Analyst at Capital Investment Group. “But the trickle-down effect for homebuyers may take time and may depend on local investment activity.”
However, concerns remain that tax incentives without direct affordable housing policies may lead to increased property values without significantly reducing costs for first-time homebuyers or low-income families.
Potential Harris Housing Policies and Their Effects on San Antonio
As a vice-presidential candidate, Kamala Harris supported housing affordability initiatives, including down payment assistance and support for renters. Should she continue to advocate for these policies, they could benefit San Antonio, where affordability is a growing concern:
Down Payment Assistance: Harris has previously supported providing down payment assistance for first-time buyers, which could enable more San Antonio residents to enter the housing market, especially those struggling to save in a high-cost environment.
Renters’ Tax Credit: Harris has proposed a tax credit for renters spending over 30% of their income on rent. If implemented, this policy could provide immediate relief for renters in San Antonio’s competitive rental market, potentially slowing the exodus to homeownership and stabilizing home prices.
“Policies like down payment assistance could really open doors for first-time buyers in San Antonio,” says Sarah Kent, Mortgage Specialist at Civic Home Loans. “And renter support can keep the market balanced, so prices don’t skyrocket as more people transition to homeownership.”
While these policies could ease affordability issues, critics argue they might also drive demand, putting more pressure on an already tight housing market unless supply-side solutions are implemented in tandem.
Homeownership Accessibility for Veterans and First-Time Buyers
San Antonio has a high population of veterans and military families who often rely on VA loans to purchase homes. Policies related to VA loan eligibility and benefits, as well as support for first-time homebuyers, may also be impacted by the election.
VA Loan Benefits: If the administration strengthens VA loan benefits, this could be a significant advantage for the veteran population in San Antonio.
First-Time Homebuyer Assistance: Policies aimed at assisting first-time buyers with down payment assistance or favorable mortgage terms could help more residents transition into homeownership.
“With San Antonio’s veteran population, enhancements to VA loan programs could play a big role in increasing homeownership rates here,” says Jennifer Miles, Veteran Housing Specialist at MilitaryHome.
First-Time Homebuyer Programs in San Antonio
Homeownership Incentive Program (HIP): Offered by the City of San Antonio's Neighborhood & Housing Services Department, HIP provides down payment and closing cost assistance to eligible first-time homebuyers. The program offers forgivable loans ranging from $1,000 to $30,000, depending on income and other criteria. Learn more about HIP here.
Down Payment Assistance Program by Neighborhood Housing Services of San Antonio (NHSSA): NHSSA offers up to $20,000 in down payment and closing cost assistance to qualified first-time homebuyers in Bexar County. This assistance is structured as a second mortgage with favorable terms. Explore NHSSA’s program here.
Texas State Affordable Housing Corporation (TSAHC) Homeownership Programs: TSAHC provides fixed-rate mortgage loans and down payment assistance grants to eligible homebuyers in Texas, including San Antonio. Their programs cater to first-time buyers, veterans, and individuals in specific professions. Find out more about TSAHC here.
Real Estate Investment and Property Taxes
Election results could also affect real estate investors and homeowners through changes in tax policy.
Property Tax Adjustments
Local property taxes play a key role in the affordability of homeownership in San Antonio. If tax reforms are introduced, homeowners could see adjustments in their tax obligations.
Real Estate Investment Opportunities
If the new administration’s policies favor real estate investment with tax incentives or capital gains tax reductions, we might see an influx of investors in San Antonio’s housing market, which could drive competition and prices higher.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
How will the election impact mortgage rates?
The outcome of the election may influence mortgage rates depending on policies aimed at inflation or economic growth. Lower rates are more likely with economic stimulus, while inflation-focused policies might keep rates high.
Will housing prices in San Antonio go up or down?
This depends on whether policies support affordable housing initiatives or stimulate demand. Increased supply could stabilize or reduce prices, while high demand may push prices up.
Could the election affect housing supply in San Antonio?
Yes, policies promoting housing development could increase supply, while high construction costs from tariffs or limited resources may reduce it.
Are there benefits for veterans in the housing market due to election policies?
Potentially. If the new administration supports VA loan benefits, this could help veterans secure housing more easily, especially in a city like San Antonio.
How might property taxes be impacted?
Changes in federal tax policy could trickle down to local property taxes, potentially easing or raising tax obligations for homeowners.
Is it a good time to buy a home in San Antonio given the election?
This depends on personal circumstances, but understanding election impacts on mortgage rates, housing prices, and inventory can help make informed decisions.
Will real estate investments be more profitable after the election?
If the administration favors real estate investment through tax incentives, San Antonio could see a boost in property investment opportunities.
How will construction costs be impacted by election policies?
Tariffs and trade policies can impact material costs. High costs may limit construction, reducing housing supply and keeping prices elevated.
What Can San Antonio Expect?
The upcoming election holds many possibilities for the San Antonio housing market.
From mortgage rates to housing prices and veteran support, a range of factors could shift based on new policies.
By staying informed on these changes, homebuyers, sellers, and investors can make better-informed decisions about entering the San Antonio real estate market.
LRG agents will help and guide you through all your home needs. Contact us at 210-879-8220 or message us on our website. You can also follow us or message us on Instagram and Facebook! Also, check out our TikTok!
